NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 03 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 155 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z

TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N19E54) PRODUCED

AN M6/2B FLARE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 310 SFU TENFLARE AT 03/1924UT.

THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT 03/0849UT. REGION 9026 WAS

RESPONSIBLE FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE

PERIOD. THIS IS A FAIRLY LARGE (940 MILLIONTHS) AND COMPLEX REGION

(FKO BETA-GAMMA). THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE STABLE AND

QUIET.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE

MODERATE TO HIGH. M AND POSSIBLY X-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM

REGION 8026.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV

ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH TO MODERATE

LEVELS.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BARRING AN EARTH

DIRECTED CME FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN

CLASS M    70/70/70

CLASS X    10/10/10

PROTON     10/10/10

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           03 JUN 166

PREDICTED   04 JUN-06 JUN  165/175/185

90 DAY MEAN        03 JUN 190

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  012/010

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  010/008

PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  008/010-008/010-008/010

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUN-06 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                10/10/10

MINOR STORM           01/01/01

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01