NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jul 03 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 185 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JUL 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z

TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES

OCCURRED, ALL OF WHICH WERE LESS THAN C-CLASS. GROWTH IN REGION 9068

(S19E38) HAS SLOWED. ALL SUNSPOT GROUPS PRESENTLY ON THE DISK ARE

RELATIVELY SIMPLE AND INACTIVE.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.

LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN A NUMBER OF REGIONS WITH

9068 BEING THE MOST LIKELY.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL

HOLE.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL

CLASS M    10/10/10

CLASS X    01/01/01

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           03 JUL 156

PREDICTED   04 JUL-06 JUL  154/152/150

90 DAY MEAN        03 JUL 181

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL  003/006

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL  008/008

PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL  010/010-010/010-015/015

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JUL-06 JUL

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           01/01/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           01/01/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05