NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 3 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 03 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 216 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION C1.4 X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 03/0808 - 1012Z AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A FILAMENT ERUPTION AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION, ORIGINATING FROM
NEAR THE NW LIMB. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 9115 (N16E77) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 03/1848Z. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE WHAT'S LEFT OF LAST
ROTATION'S, VERY ACTIVE REGION 9177 (N18, L=310). LIMB PROXIMITY
PREVENTS A THOROUGH ANALYSIS, BUT THE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY OBSERVED ON
THE NE LIMB OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST A MUCH WEAKER, LESS
COMPLEX REGION. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
CLASS M    30/35/35
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 AUG 154
PREDICTED   04 AUG-06 AUG  160/170/180
90 DAY MEAN        03 AUG 190
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 AUG  009/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01