NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 September 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Sep 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 273 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 9169 (N12W77)
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY, DECREASING IN BOTH AREA AND SPOTS. 
REGIONS 9173 (S12E13) AND 9176 (S09E45) DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
SINCE YESTERDAY.  REGION 9176 IS NOW A BETA SPOT GROUP WITH
APPROXIMATELY 16 SPOTS COVERING 410 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. 
NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.  MINOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
CLASS M    50/50/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 SEP 192
PREDICTED   30 SEP-02 OCT  185/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        29 SEP 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  008/010-008/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01