NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9209
(S24E21) showed gradual development with an increase in both
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. It produced a M4/2B
flare at 29/0157 UTC associated with 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II and
IV radio sweeps, and a 9-degree filament disappearance. Further
analysis is required to determine if an Earth-directed CME
accompanied this flare. Regions 9212 (N08E61) and 9214 (S11E55)
produced isolated C-class subflares. Both regions showed a slight
degree of magnetic complexity. New Regions 9215 (N20W57) and 9216
(N17W07) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9209 is expected to produce isolated M-class
flares. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this
region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity varied from unsettled to minor storm
levels. Minor storm levels were observed until 29/1200 UTC due to
sustained southward IMF Bz. Unsettled to active levels occurred
during the remainder of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the first day.
Active conditions are possible during the last two days in response
to today's M4 flare.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 187
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov  190/195/200
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  026/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  012/018-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/15/05