NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 May 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 May 29 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 150 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAY 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z

TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW FLARES OCCURRED

AND ALL WERE BELOW C-LEVEL. REGION 9017 (S13E16) REMAINS THE MOST

COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. REGIONS 9023 (S03W12) AND

9024 (S14E55) WERE NUMBERED.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. REGION 9017 IS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF FLARE

ACTIVITY.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE

GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS

MODERATE.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE RELATED

ACTIVITY.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN

CLASS M    30/30/30

CLASS X    01/01/01

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           29 MAY 149

PREDICTED   30 MAY-01 JUN  145/145/145

90 DAY MEAN        29 MAY 193

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAY  010/012

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAY  015/020

PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAY-01 JUN  020/018-015/015-015/012

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAY-01 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                30/20/15

MINOR STORM           10/10/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                35/20/15

MINOR STORM           15/10/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01