NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 29 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 089 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z

TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS

OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8921 (S16W44) SHOWED SIGNIFICANT

DECAY.  NEW REGIONS 8935 (S07E35) AND 8936 (S16E72) WERE NUMBERED

TODAY.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  LASCO/SOHO SCIENTISTS TODAY

REPORTED A BACKSIDE FULL HALO CME THAT IS NOT EARTH DIRECTED AND IS

FIRST VISIBLE AT 29/1054Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.  THIS EVENT MAY

BE RELATED TO OLD ACTIVE REGION 8906 (S16, L=121) WHICH IS DUE TO

RETURN ON 03 APRIL.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR

CLASS M    30/40/50

CLASS X    05/05/10

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           29 MAR 209

PREDICTED   30 MAR-01 APR  195/190/185

90 DAY MEAN        29 MAR 179

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAR  003/005

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAR  005/005

PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAR-01 APR  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                20/20/20

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                25/25/25

MINOR STORM           05/05/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01