NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 June 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jun 29 2220 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 181 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL, MOSTLY
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THIS PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS A C6
EVENT AT 29/0751Z. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHER C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ON OR BEHIND THE NW AND
SW LIMB. REGION 9062 (S16E23) IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK AND IS NOW A D TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 360 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
PERIOD, BUT  SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY HAS YET TO OCCUR. A NEW ACTIVE
REGION WITH FREQUENT SURGING IS ROTATING THE NE LIMB. REMAINING
REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM THE REGIONS ON THE WEST LIMB
IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. MOSTLY LOW LEVEL, ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH THE ACTIVE CONDITIONS
CONFINED TO LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES IN LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUN 163
PREDICTED   30 JUN-02 JUL  165/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUN   184
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN  014/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL  010/008-010/008-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUN-02 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/50
MINOR STORM           25/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    11/16/11