Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Feb

By SpaceRef Editor
February 29, 2000
Filed under

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Feb 29 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 060 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 FEB 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLASS M FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE STILL
ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/20/20
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 29 FEB 219
PREDICTED 01 MAR-03 MAR 220/220/220
90 DAY MEAN 29 FEB 167
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB 012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 FEB 008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR 012/020-010/012-005/007
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/15
MINOR STORM 10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/10
MINOR STORM 10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.