NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 29 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 242 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9147 (N04E53)
PRODUCED AN C3/SN EVENT AT 29/1519Z. A FAINT SEVEN DEGREE LONG
FILAMENT DISAPPEARD BETWEEN 29/0536-1600Z AT S37W45.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
THE FORECAST WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE NIGHTTIME
SECTORS. PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE. THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A WELL
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 AUG 163
PREDICTED   30 AUG-01 SEP  165/165/165
90 DAY MEAN        29 AUG 182
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  017/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  035/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  020/020-012/012-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05