NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 29 Apr 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Apr 29 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 120 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 APR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8970 (S15W36) PRODUCED
TWO MINOR C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8976 (S11W14)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C3/SF AT 29/1203UT, THIS WAS THE LARGEST
EVENT NOTED TODAY. REGION 8971(N18W36) PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE
AT 29/1710UT. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE, THE SUN WAS
FAIRLY QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 APR-02 MAY
CLASS M 30/30/30
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 29 APR 175
PREDICTED 30 APR-02 MAY 175/175/180
90 DAY MEAN 29 APR 189
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR 011/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR 012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 APR-02 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/20
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/30/30
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01