Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 May 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
May 28, 2000
Filed under

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 28 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 149 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8
X-RAY BURST AT 28/1018UT AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN H-ALPHA LIMB
EVENT (SURGE/SPRAY) NEAR NW 23. THIS EVENT MOST LIKELY OCCURRED IN
RECENTLY DEPARTED REGION 9002. REGION 9017 (S13E29) REMAINS THE MOST
COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS AREA HAS
YET TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 9021 (N03E18) AND
9022 (S21E67) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE PROBABLE AND AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARE IS POSSIBLE. REGION 9017 IS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
INCREASED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL
HOLES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 MAY-31 MAY
CLASS M 30/30/30
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 28 MAY 156
PREDICTED 29 MAY-31 MAY 150/145/140
90 DAY MEAN 28 MAY 194
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY 008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY 012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY 012/025-015/018-015/015
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 MAY-31 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/15/15
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 02/05/05
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/15/15
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.