NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 28 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 28 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 241 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9143 (S19E20) PRODUCED AN C3/1N EVENT AT 28/1704Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW AND IS THE LARGEST REGION OUT OF THE TEN SPOTTED REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE SOLAR DISK. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9147 (N04E67), 9148 (S20E47), AND 9149 (N10E70). IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 9143 AND 9144 (N26W24) REMAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST. POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED DURING NIGHTTIME SECTORS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG CLASS M 40/40/40 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 28 AUG 160 PREDICTED 29 AUG-31 AUG 165/170/175 90 DAY MEAN 28 AUG 181 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG 012/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG 015/020-012/015-010/012 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/25/20 MINOR STORM 15/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/30/25 MINOR STORM 15/15/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01
