NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 Occtober 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 xray flare at 2056
UTC, with no reported optical association, was the day's largest
event.  Earlier, a C8 xray flare at 1127 UTC, quickly followed by a
C9 at 1203 UTC, are thought to stem from regions now past the NW
limb. The visible disk was stable. One new region, 9211 (N30W43),
emerged during the day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Effects of a CME on 25 October
are due to begin in the next 24 hours. High latitudes may experience
episodes of minor storm conditions. Conditions should calm by the
end of the interval.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 176
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  180/180/185
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  015/015-015/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01