NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 27 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 27 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 209 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  REGION 9090 (N14W76)
PRODUCED AN M2/SB FLARE AT 27/0410Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TENFLARE.  AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 27/1711Z, LIKELY DUE TO
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 9087, BEHIND THE WEST LIMB.  A FULL HALO WAS
EVIDENT  IN SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY BEGINNING AT 1954Z.  REGIONS 9090 AND
9097 (N09W41) BOTH APPEAR TO BE DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. 
NEW REGIONS 9104 (S23E65), 9105 (N13E81), AND 9106 (S10W15) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES EARLY IN THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR STORM PERIODS
AT HIGHER LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 25 JULY.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
CLASS M    60/50/40
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUL 162
PREDICTED   28 JUL-30 JUL  160/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUL 190
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL  016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  020/030-020/025-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/20/15