NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 June 2000

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Jun 24 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 176 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUN 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z

TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9042

(N22W89) PRODUCED A C7/SF FLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT SHOWED NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE WEST LIMB. REGION 9046

(N21W48) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE.

MINOR GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9049 (S36W34), 9054 (N12E11),

AND 9058 (S14W29). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND

SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. NEW REGIONS 9060 (S34E59) AND 9061 (S14E74) WERE

NUMBERED.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL

ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS

WITH STORM LEVELS LIMITED TO THE HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY

DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER 24/0900Z.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS

EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING 25 – 26

JUNE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE

FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON

FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO

HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN

CLASS M    30/25/25

CLASS X    10/05/05

PROTON     05/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           24 JUN 168

PREDICTED   25 JUN-27 JUN  160/155/155

90 DAY MEAN        24 JUN 185

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  020/023

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  015/020

PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  020/025-020/030-012/015

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUN-27 JUN

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                40/40/30

MINOR STORM           15/15/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                40/40/30

MINOR STORM           20/20/15

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01