NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 24 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 237 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C6 AT 24/0917Z. EUV IMAGERY INDICATE THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE NORTHWEST LIMB WHERE REGION 9125 COMPLETED WEST LIMB TRANSIT ON 23 AUGUST. REGION 9131 (N14W72) GREW DURING THE PERIOD. TWO SMALL REGIONS ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AT N16E71 AND S18E70 AND WERE NUMBERED AS NEW REGIONS 9142 AND 9143 RESPECTIVELY. REGION 9143 IS THE LARGER OF THE TWO AND PRODUCED INFREQUENT SUBFLARES. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF A LOW LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THAT TIME. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON 25 AUGUST. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG CLASS M 10/10/10 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 24 AUG 131 PREDICTED 25 AUG-27 AUG 128/128/130 90 DAY MEAN 24 AUG 182 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 AUG 005/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG 010/010-008/008-008/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/20/15 MINOR STORM 10/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01
