NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class
subflares occurred, mainly in Regions 9199 (N08W49) and 9201
(N17W08). New regions numbered include 9206 (N20E50), 9207 (S20E65),
and 9208 (S13E77).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class activity in Regions 9199 and 9201. A small M-flare in
one of these regions is possible but is becoming less likely.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response
to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    20/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 167
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  007/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/012-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01