NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 23 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 236 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. CURRENT DISK REGIONS ARE SMALL AND EXHIBITED ONLY MINOR EVOLUTION. THE EAST LIMB WAS QUIET. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL THE 23/0900-1800Z TIME PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WERE OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME. QUIET RETURNED FOR THE 23/1800-2100Z PERIOD. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 24-25 AUGUST WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG CLASS M 05/05/05 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 23 AUG 137 PREDICTED 24 AUG-26 AUG 134/132/132 90 DAY MEAN 23 AUG 182 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 AUG 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 AUG 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 AUG-26 AUG 010/012-010/010-005/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/15 MINOR STORM 15/15/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/15 MINOR STORM 15/15/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/01
