Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 October 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
October 22, 2000
Filed under
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3 peaking at 22/0231 UTC.  Optical activity
during this event included a SF flare in Region 9203 (N13W43) and an
EPL on the southeast limb near S30E90. Region 9199 (N09W31) has
decayed since yesterday and Region 9201 (N17E06) appears to have
simplified a little.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected to continue and an M-class
flare in Regions 9199 or 9201 is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 22/0900-1200 UTC period.
Afterwards the field has been at unsettled to active levels in
response to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 160
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  165/165/170
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  015/018-010/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.