NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3 peaking at 22/0231 UTC. Optical activity
during this event included a SF flare in Region 9203 (N13W43) and an
EPL on the southeast limb near S30E90. Region 9199 (N09W31) has
decayed since yesterday and Region 9201 (N17E06) appears to have
simplified a little.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected to continue and an M-class
flare in Regions 9199 or 9201 is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the 22/0900-1200 UTC period.
Afterwards the field has been at unsettled to active levels in
response to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 160
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 165/165/170
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/018-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01