Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 November 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
November 22, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9236 (N20E19) became
very active early in the period and has produced several c-class
flares. The largest flare from this region was a C7/1n at 22/1621Z,
with associated Type II sweep and moderate to strong radio bursts,
including a 500sfu Tenflare. Small C-class flares were also observed
in Regions 9237 (N09W73) and 9240 (N09E72). New region 9240
(N09E72) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to increase
to moderate levels over the next three days. Regions 9231 (S24W50)
and 9236 are complex and have good potential for an isolated M-class
flare. Previous active longitudes, responsible for several
impressive CME's, are rotating to view on the East limb and may well
increase the chance for M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet through 1200Z, but was mostly
unsettled since then.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    50/60/60
Class X    10/15/15
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 195
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  200/210/210
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.