NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 November 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9236 (N20E19) became
very active early in the period and has produced several c-class
flares. The largest flare from this region was a C7/1n at 22/1621Z,
with associated Type II sweep and moderate to strong radio bursts,
including a 500sfu Tenflare. Small C-class flares were also observed
in Regions 9237 (N09W73) and 9240 (N09E72). New region 9240
(N09E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to increase
to moderate levels over the next three days. Regions 9231 (S24W50)
and 9236 are complex and have good potential for an isolated M-class
flare. Previous active longitudes, responsible for several
impressive CME's, are rotating to view on the East limb and may well
increase the chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet through 1200Z, but was mostly
unsettled since then.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 50/60/60
Class X 10/15/15
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 195
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 200/210/210
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05