Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 May 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
May 22, 2000
Filed under

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 143 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8996 (S20W63) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, INCLUDING THE LARGEST EVENT THIS
PERIOD – A C5 X-RAY FLARE AT 22/0356Z. THOUGH QUITE ACTIVE, THIS
REGION IS DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. REGIONS 8996 (S20W63),
9002 (N20W23), AND 9004 (N12W34), ALL MODERATELY SIZED REGIONS
EXCEEDING 400 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, WERE ALSO EITHER
STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH THE LARGER, MORE COMPLEX REGIONS ARE DECAYING,
THEY STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIOD BETWEEN 22/09-12Z.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAY-25 MAY
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 22 MAY 215
PREDICTED 23 MAY-25 MAY 205/195/185
90 DAY MEAN 22 MAY 196
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY 005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY 010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY 015/012-012/008-010/008
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAY-25 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 40/20/10
MINOR STORM 35/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 25/10/05
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 50/40/30
MINOR STORM 30/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 15/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.