NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 235 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 AUG 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED. A MODERATE DURATION C2 OCCURRED FROM 22/0829-0939Z
AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE NORTHWEST
LIMB. A SMALL REGION ROTATED ONTO THE DISK NEAR N08E70 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9140.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS VERY LOW
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
CLASS M 05/05/05
CLASS X 01/01/01
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 22 AUG 144
PREDICTED 23 AUG-25 AUG 140/135/135
90 DAY MEAN 22 AUG 183
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG 009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG 004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG 008/012-010/012-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/30/20
MINOR STORM 05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/30/20
MINOR STORM 05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/05/01