Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 August 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
August 22, 2000
Filed under
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 235 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED.  A MODERATE DURATION C2 OCCURRED FROM 22/0829-0939Z
AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ERUPTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE NORTHWEST
LIMB.  A SMALL REGION ROTATED ONTO THE DISK NEAR N08E70 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9140.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS VERY LOW
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 AUG 144
PREDICTED   23 AUG-25 AUG  140/135/135
90 DAY MEAN        22 AUG 183
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG  008/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.