NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 September 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Sep 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 265 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 SEP 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY LOW C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED THROUGH THE PERIOD.   AN EIGHT DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED
AT N33E14 BETWEEN 20/1525 UTC AND 21/0706 UTC.  REGION 9169 (N09E32)
REMAINS A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.  A NEW REGION WAS
NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9170 (S07E28).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED MAJOR FLARING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITH
REGION 9169.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    25/25/25
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 SEP 225
PREDICTED   22 SEP-24 SEP  230/235/235
90 DAY MEAN        21 SEP 178
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 SEP  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
COMMENTS:
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED 
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE.  THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC 
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS.  ONLY THE 
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR 
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT.  FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML