NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 November 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Nov 21 2210 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate, due to a single impulsive M1/Sn flare from Region 9237 (N10W61), 7-spot Cro beta, at 21/1917Z. Prior to this event, only sporadic minor C-class activity was observed. New Region 9239 (S23E73), a single spot Hsx alpha, was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. In addition to continuing activity from Region 9237 as it approaches the west limb, Regions 9231 (S23W36) and 9235 (N11W08) remain possible sources for moderate events. Previously active heliographic longitudes, thought to be the source for an impressive full-halo CME on 16 November, are also due to return beginning on 23 November. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled conditions at all latitudes for the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Nov 185 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 010/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
