NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 21 2229 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 081 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z

TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN UNOBSERVED M1 X-RAY

EVENT OCCURRED AT 1424Z, WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP. FLARE

ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED, AS MOST OF THE DISK REGIONS WERE

EITHER STABLE OR DECAYING. REGION 8910 (N12W49) IS STILL DOMINANT IN

WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8922 (N14E57) ROTATED

FULLY INTO VIEW.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. REGION 8910 IS THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS

FLARES.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THERE IS A

CHANCE FOR SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ACTIVITY VERY LATE IN THE INTERVAL,

WHEN A CORONAL HOLE ROTATES TO A POTENTIALLY GEO-EFFECTIVE POSITION.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR

CLASS M    50/50/50

CLASS X    05/05/05

PROTON     05/05/05

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           21 MAR 231

PREDICTED   22 MAR-24 MAR  235/240/245

90 DAY MEAN        21 MAR 175

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR  005/008

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR  003/005

PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR  010/015-010/010-015/015

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                10/10/20

MINOR STORM           01/01/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/30

MINOR STORM           05/05/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01