NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 June 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jun 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 173 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JUN 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9042 (N23W38)
PRODUCED TODAY’S ONLY M-CLASS EVENT, AN M1/SF AT 0929Z. THE REGION
PRODUCED ADDITIONAL, FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS, BUT APPEARED TO BE IN
AN OVERALL STATE OF GRADUAL DECLINE. REGION 9046 (N21W07) CONTINUES
TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS RELATIVELY STABLE.
REGIONS 9050 (S08W48) AND 9052 (S26W52) SHOWED STEADY SLOW GROWTH,
BUT WERE ALSO STABLE. NEW REGIONS 9055 (N19E70) AND 9056 (S15E68)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS SIMPLE H-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 CONTINUE
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
CLASS M 40/40/40
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 21 JUN 188
PREDICTED 22 JUN-24 JUN 185/185/180
90 DAY MEAN 21 JUN 186
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUN 009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN 005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN 010/010-010/015-010/015
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JUN-24 JUN
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/15/15
MINOR STORM 10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/20
MINOR STORM 10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05