Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 July 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
July 21, 2000
Filed under
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 203 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH.  THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT
WAS A CLASS M5 FLARE IN REGION 9090 (N11E06) AT 21/1430Z. REGION
9087 (S12W26) AND REGION 9090 HAVE PRODUCED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY, 
REGIONS 9087 AND 9090 ARE THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS TODAY; BOTH HAVE
DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH WITH CLASS M FLARES LIKELY AND CLASS X FLARES
POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE.   EFFECTS OF THE SOLAR
ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED ON 19 JULY AND 20 JULY HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED
AT THIS TIME.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF EARLIER SOLAR ACTIVITY.  ACE DATA INDICATE
SOME STRUCTURES MAY STILL BE PROPAGATING IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE
LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS FOR UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUL-24 JUL
CLASS M    85/80/75
CLASS X    35/30/20
PROTON     35/30/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 JUL 251
PREDICTED   22 JUL-24 JUL  245/240/235
90 DAY MEAN        21 JUL 189
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL  028/043
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL  030/030-025/015-020/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JUL-24 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    22/12/12
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           40/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    27/22/12

SpaceRef staff editor.