NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 July 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Jul 21 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 203 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JUL 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT WAS A CLASS M5 FLARE IN REGION 9090 (N11E06) AT 21/1430Z. REGION 9087 (S12W26) AND REGION 9090 HAVE PRODUCED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY, REGIONS 9087 AND 9090 ARE THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS TODAY; BOTH HAVE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH WITH CLASS M FLARES LIKELY AND CLASS X FLARES POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED ON 19 JULY AND 20 JULY HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS TIME. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF EARLIER SOLAR ACTIVITY. ACE DATA INDICATE SOME STRUCTURES MAY STILL BE PROPAGATING IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS FOR UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JUL-24 JUL CLASS M 85/80/75 CLASS X 35/30/20 PROTON 35/30/20 PCAF YELLOW IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 21 JUL 251 PREDICTED 22 JUL-24 JUL 245/240/235 90 DAY MEAN 21 JUL 189 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL 028/043 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL 030/030-025/015-020/015 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JUL-24 JUL A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/30/30 MINOR STORM 25/20/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 22/12/12 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/30 MINOR STORM 40/30/25 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 27/22/12
