NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 September 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Sep 20 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 264 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 SEP 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9169 (N08E46) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK. OTHER THAN LOW C-CLASS EVENTS, THE REGION REMAINS QUIET. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM REGION 9169. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP CLASS M 70/70/70 CLASS X 25/25/25 PROTON 05/05/05 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 20 SEP 211 PREDICTED 21 SEP-23 SEP 215/215/220 90 DAY MEAN 20 SEP 177 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP 015/027 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP 010/012-010/010-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/20/20 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/25/25 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01 COMMENTS: EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEB SITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
