Status Report

NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 October 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
October 20, 2000
Filed under

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9199 (N08W04) produced
a couple of minor C-class events. Region 9201 showed moderate
growth during the period. New Regions 9203 (N15W15), and 9204
(N09E15) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on day two and three as a coronal hole rotates into a more
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 25/25/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 161
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 165/165/175
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 008/010-015/020-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/40
Minor storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/40/45
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.