NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Mar 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Mar 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 080 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 MAR 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8910 (N13W35)
PRODUCED AN M2/2B FLARE AT 1644Z. THE REGION HAD NUMEROUS SMALLER
EVENTS AS IT REMAINED LARGE (680 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT) AND
COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA DELTA). EARLIER IN THE DAY, AN M2/LIMB FLARE
WITH TYPES II AND IV SWEEP OCCURRED AT 0834Z, FROM AN AREA NEAR
S18E90. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8921 (S15E71) IS NEARBY, BUT LIMB
PROXIMITY PROHIBITS AN UNAMBIGUOUS DETERMINATION OF THE SOURCE OF
THAT ACTIVITY. SOHO DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE ACTIVE
REGIONS COMING INTO VIEW THERE. ELSEWHERE, A SECOND NEW REGION, 8920
(N24E55), WAS NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE.
REGION 8910 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS, WITH A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 MAR-23 MAR
CLASS M 70/50/50
CLASS X 15/10/10
PROTON 15/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 20 MAR 210
PREDICTED 21 MAR-23 MAR 215/220/225
90 DAY MEAN 20 MAR 174
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR 006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR 005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR 010/008-010/015-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 MAR-23 MAR
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 15/15/15
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/20
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
