NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 233 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 AUG 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9125 DISPLAYED
SIGNIFICANT DECAY. NEW REGION 9139 (S11E23) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS EVENT
POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 AUG-23 AUG
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 20 AUG 152
PREDICTED 21 AUG-23 AUG 145/140/130
90 DAY MEAN 20 AUG 184
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 AUG 003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG 005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG 005/008-010/008-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 AUG-23 AUG
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/25/25
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/30/30
MINOR STORM 10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01