NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 15 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 075 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z

TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W20)

PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, AN M1/1N AT 15/1840UT.

THIS ACTIVE REGION REMAINS LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX ALTHOUGH

SOME DECAY IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E31)

CONTINUES TO GROW AND HAS PRODUCED A FEW SMALL FLARES. THE LARGEST

WAS A C3/SF AT 14/2105UT. OTHER SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE RELATIVELY

QUIET.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE

MODERATE TO HIGH. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGION

8906. A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR

CLASS M    75/75/75

CLASS X    40/40/40

PROTON     20/20/20

PCAF       YELLOW

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           15 MAR 179

PREDICTED   16 MAR-18 MAR  175/170/170

90 DAY MEAN        15 MAR 175

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR  005/006

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  003/008

PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           10/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                15/15/15

MINOR STORM           10/10/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05