NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 June 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jun 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 154 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JUN 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N20E61) PRODUCED
AN M7/2B FLARE AT 1938Z. EARLIER, IT HAD AN M1/1F AT 0414Z, AND AN
M4/1N AT 0659Z. IN ADDITION, IT GENERATED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS.
THE REGION CONSISTS OF A SUBSTANTIAL FIELD OF BRIGHT PLAGE, LARGE
SPOTS, AND A MODERATE DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. MIXED
POLARITIES MAY BE PRESENT IN THE LEADER PENUMBRA. ELSEWHERE, NEW
REGION 9028 (N08E12) EMERGED. THE REMAINING DISK REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET AND STABLE. TODAY’S 10.7 CM SOLAR FLUX WAS FLARE
ENHANCED AND ESTIMATED TO BE 155.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH, WITH M-CLASS FLARES ORIGINATING FROM REGION 9026.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
CLASS M 70/70/70
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 02 JUN 155
PREDICTED 03 JUN-05 JUN 165/175/185
90 DAY MEAN 02 JUN 191
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN 009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN 008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN 010/008-005/010-005/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JUN-05 JUN
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/10/10
MINOR STORM 05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/15/15
MINOR STORM 05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
