NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 July 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jul 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 184 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JUL 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE BY VIRTUE OF AN M1 FLARE AT
01/2325 UTC. NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED AND IMAGES FROM
THE SOHO SPACECRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE SOURCE OF THE FLARE WAS NOT ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR HEMISPHERE. REGION 9062 (S16W18) CONTINUES TO
DECAY AND SIMPLIFY BUT REMAINS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE
DISK. REGION 9068 (S19E51) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY AND HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NEW REGION 9070 (N19E72) ROTATED
ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION
9068. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JUL 162
PREDICTED   03 JUL-05 JUL  160/160/165
90 DAY MEAN        02 JUL 181
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUL  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  010/005-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JUL-05 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01