NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 October 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Oct 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low, Region 9194 (S11W31) produced a
C3/1f flare with minor centimetric radio bursts at 19/0044Z. Earlier
in the period, a C1/Sf flare was observed in Region 9199 (N08E09),
Several minor fluctuations occurred in this region during the period
and the region remains moderately complex; however, no new growth
was noted. A long-duration C1 X-ray event that occurred between
19/0634 - 0826UT was also likely from Region 9199. 
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 9199 has the best possibility for anything
greater than low C-class X-ray activity. Several regions on the disk
are capable of an isolated low C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with a small
chance for active conditions at high latitudes. A greater chance for
active periods will develop on day three as a coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 158
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  012/010-008/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/35
Minor storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/40
Minor storm           15/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05