NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The only activity of note
was the occurrence of five C-class flares, the largest an optically
uncorrelated C9 at 19/0207Z.  Region 9231 (S24W10) remains the
largest and most complex of the eight active regions currently on
the visible disk as a 40-spot FAO group with beta-gamma
configuration.  Region 9235 (N13E20) also warrants attention as a
29-spot EAI group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with regions 9235 and 9231 continuing as the most
likely sources of moderate activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quite to unsettled for the next three days, with
the possibility of isolated periods of active conditions on day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 175
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  180/185/185
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  012/015-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01