NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 May 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 140 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z: ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS BY VIRTUE OF AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 AT 19/0058Z. REGIONS 8996 (S21W22), 8998
(S12W09), AND 9002 (N18E18) REMAINED LARGE REGIONS OF MODERATE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EACH
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C -CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
STABLE. NEW REGION 9011 (N19E69), AN H-TYPE GROUP TRAILING REGION
9010 (N20E57), ROTATED INTO VIEW DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 8998, AND 9002 EACH APPEAR CAPABLE
OF M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. BRIEF ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 MAY-22 MAY
CLASS M 80/80/80
CLASS X 15/15/15
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF YELLOW
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 19 MAY 254
PREDICTED 20 MAY-22 MAY 260/260/265
90 DAY MEAN 19 MAY 194
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY 008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY 012/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY 015/012-015/012-012/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 MAY-22 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/30/25
MINOR STORM 15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 35/35/30
MINOR STORM 20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
