NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 232 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 AUG 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED. THE LARGEST EVENT DURING THE PERIOD WAS A C5/SF AT
19/0439Z FROM REGION 9125 (N27W49). NEW REGIONS 9137 (N23E45), AND
9138 (S32E64) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 9125.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 19 AUG 157
PREDICTED 20 AUG-22 AUG 155/150/150
90 DAY MEAN 19 AUG 184
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG 003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG 005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG 005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/20
MINOR STORM 05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/25/30
MINOR STORM 10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/05