NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 19 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 232 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. THE LARGEST EVENT DURING THE PERIOD WAS A C5/SF AT 19/0439Z FROM REGION 9125 (N27W49). NEW REGIONS 9137 (N23E45), AND 9138 (S32E64) WERE NUMBERED. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 9125. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG CLASS M 25/25/25 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 19 AUG 157 PREDICTED 20 AUG-22 AUG 155/150/150 90 DAY MEAN 19 AUG 184 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG 005/008-005/008-010/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/20/20 MINOR STORM 05/05/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/25/30 MINOR STORM 10/10/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/05
