NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 18 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C4 flare occurred at 17/2205UT. Very isolated low C-class flares were also observed. Regions 9199 (N12E24) and 9201 (N17E57) exhibited minor growth, but have been relatively dormant. New region 9202 (N14E26) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Mostly minor c-class flares expected. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons were at moderate to high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Isolated active periods are possible tomorrow in response to the CME observed early on 16 Oct. Mostly quiet to unsettled on days two and three. III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Oct 151 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 015/015-012/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
