NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 Mar 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2000 Mar 18 2200 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

SDF NUMBER 078 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 MAR 2000

IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z

TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S17W62)

PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 18/2102UT. THIS ACTIVE REGION CONTINUES TO

DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8910 (N11W10) AND 8913

(S16E17) ARE GROWING AND HAVE BOTH PRODUCED SMALL FLARES. NEW REGION

8917 (N20E18) EMERGED ON THE DISK.

IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW

TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE PROBABLE IN REGIONS 8906, 8910, AND

8913. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8906 AND

8910.

IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS

EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.

III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 MAR-21 MAR

CLASS M    40/40/40

CLASS X    01/01/01

PROTON     01/01/01

PCAF       GREEN

IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX

OBSERVED           18 MAR 195

PREDICTED   19 MAR-21 MAR  198/200/200

90 DAY MEAN        18 MAR 174

V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAR  003/006

ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAR  005/007

PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAR-21 MAR  005/008-005/008-010/013

VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 MAR-21 MAR

A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES

ACTIVE                10/10/15

MINOR STORM           01/01/05

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05

B.  HIGH LATITUDES

ACTIVE                10/10/15

MINOR STORM           05/05/10

MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05