NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 18 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 231 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 AUG 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C5/1F LONG DURATION FLARE AT 18/0445Z FROM REGION 9127
(S37W67). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE.
REGION 9125 (N26W36), EXHIBITING A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION, IS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, BUT
OTHER THAN A VERY IMPULSIVE C1/SF FLARE AT 18/1810Z, THIS REGION WAS
QUIET. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 01/01/01
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 18 AUG 170
PREDICTED 19 AUG-21 AUG 170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN 18 AUG 185
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 AUG 009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG 005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 20/20/20
MINOR STORM 10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/30/30
MINOR STORM 15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05