NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 18 August 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Aug 18 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 231 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 AUG 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD WAS A C5/1F LONG DURATION FLARE AT 18/0445Z FROM REGION 9127 (S37W67). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE. REGION 9125 (N26W36), EXHIBITING A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION, IS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, BUT OTHER THAN A VERY IMPULSIVE C1/SF FLARE AT 18/1810Z, THIS REGION WAS QUIET. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE OR IN DECAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG CLASS M 25/25/25 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 18 AUG 170 PREDICTED 19 AUG-21 AUG 170/165/160 90 DAY MEAN 18 AUG 185 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 AUG 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 AUG-21 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/20/20 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/30/30 MINOR STORM 15/15/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05
