NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 October 2000
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2000 Oct 17 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9193 (N05W86) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 17/0204UT. Minor C-class subfaint flares also occurred in Region 9200 (S18E46). New Region 9201 (N16E69) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Just an isolated chance for an M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated in a high speed coronal hole stream, but is in slow decline. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 16/1125UT, ended at 17/0210UT. The peak of 15 pfu occurred at 16/1840UT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible on day two from the large CME observed early on 16 Oct. III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Oct 154 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 160/170/180 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 010/010-015/015-012/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/40/40 Minor storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
