NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9231
(S24E19) produced isolated C-class subflares. It stabilized as a
medium-sized F-type group with moderate magnetic complexity. Region
9235 (N14E51) also produced isolated C-class subflares. A 32-degree
filament erupted from the southwest quadrant beginning around
17/0700 UTC. A CME was associated with the eruption, but it was not
Earth-directed. No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce isolated M-class
flares during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day
increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest of the
period due to coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 163
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  160/160/165
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  010/010-015/020-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/30
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/35
Minor storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/05