NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 June 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Jun 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 169 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JUN 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N24W77)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 17/0237Z. THE SOHO/LASCO C2 IMAGERY
OBSERVED A CME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE WAS ALSO A 16 DEGREE
LONG FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 16/1621Z AND 17/1347Z WHICH
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 9050 (S13E06) AND REGION 9051 (N16E61).
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033, 9042 (N22E16) AND 9046 (N19E44).
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED ON DAY THREE AS A RESULT OF TODAY’S M3/2B AND CME FROM
REGION 9033.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 17 JUN 193
PREDICTED 18 JUN-20 JUN 190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN 17 JUN 188
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN 010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN 020/025-010/015-008/015
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JUN-20 JUN
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 40/15/10
MINOR STORM 20/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/01/01
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 60/20/20
MINOR STORM 25/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/01/01
