NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 17 August 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Aug 17 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 230 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 AUG 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C4/1N AT
17/0837UT FROM REGION 9131 (N14E21). REGION 9125 (N26W22) REMAINS
THE LARGEST AND MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX GROUP OF THE 12 SPOTTED
REGIONS VISIBLE. REGION 9125 PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 17/1241UT. OVERALL
MOST OF THE REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY STABLE AND PRODUCED VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9136 (N07W06).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT
APPROXIMATELY 17/0900UT AND STAYED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 AUG-20 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 AUG 177
PREDICTED   18 AUG-20 AUG  175/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        17 AUG 186
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 AUG-20 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05