NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 November 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Nov 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. An impressive,
full-halo CME occurred early in the period, but was judged to be
from a source on the far side of the Sun. A C8 X-ray flare occurred
at 16/0040 UTC associated with a weak Type II radio sweep and a CME
that did not appear to be Earth-directed. The source for this flare
was determined to be Region 9231 (S23E30), based on SOHO/EIT images.
Region 9231 showed a gradual increase in spot count and penumbral
coverage, as well as a minor increase in magnetic complexity. New
Region 9235 (N14E63) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce an isolated M-class
flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first two
days of the forecast period. Field activity is expected to increase
to unsettled to active levels on the third day due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to decline to normal to moderate levels during the latter
half of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 154
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  155/160/160
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  007/012-010/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/35
Minor storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10