NOAA/USAF Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 16 May 2000
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 May 16 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 137 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAY 2000
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M3/SF FROM
REGION 9002 (N19E61) AT 16/1551UT. THE OTHER REGIONS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WERE 8989 (N18W80), 8993 (S21W84), AND 8998
(S13E28), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST
REGION REMAINS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1240 MILLIONTHS AND 41
SPOTS. IT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD
INCREASE ON THE SECOND DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORMING AT
HIGHER LATITUDES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A CME REPORTED ON
15 MAY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
CLASS M 80/80/80
CLASS X 15/15/15
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 16 MAY 259
PREDICTED 17 MAY-19 MAY 260/260/265
90 DAY MEAN 16 MAY 190
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY 012/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY 015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY 015/020-025/030-018/020
VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAY-19 MAY
A. MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE 25/50/30
MINOR STORM 20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/05
B. HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE 30/70/35
MINOR STORM 15/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/10/05
